The Central Intelligence Agency has confirmed that a body of credible evidence indicates Iran’s nuclear program has been severely damaged by recent US strikes. CIA Director John Ratcliffe stated in an official release that the agency’s evidence includes new intelligence from a historically reliable source that several key Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be rebuilt over the course of years.
The CIA’s assessment contradicts initial reports from the Defense Intelligence Agency, which suggested the strikes may have only set back Iran’s nuclear ambitions by a matter of months. The White House has pushed back on the DIA’s assessment, calling it “wrong.” Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard also posted on social media that “new intelligence” supports the notion that Iran’s nuclear facilities were “destroyed” in the strikes, with rebuilding likely taking years.
The US military’s final battle damage assessment, which could take days or weeks to complete, will determine the extent of the damage. The assessment process typically involves three phases: assessing physical damage, functional impact, and overall impact on the system. The initial DIA analysis was a Phase III assessment based on 24 hours of intelligence gathering and had “low-confidence” judgments.
President Donald Trump claimed the strikes “obliterated” Iran’s ability to produce a nuclear weapon, but experts say a single operation is unlikely to achieve that goal. Questions have swirled about the extent of damage to specific facilities, including Isfahan, where Iran is believed to have stored highly enriched uranium deep underground. US officials also believe Iran maintains secret nuclear facilities that weren’t targeted in the strike.
The CIA’s confirmation of severe damage comes amid reports of differing assessments within the intelligence community. As more intelligence becomes available, the military will continue to assess the impact of the strikes. The final assessment may differ from initial findings, as has been the case in past military operations.
