Over the past year, the Dangote Refinery in Lagos has dramatically increased its refined fuel exports, capitalizing on the retreat of European competitors and exploiting cracks in their market dominance. Since ramping up production in early 2024, the refinery—Africa’s largest—has reduced West Africa’s reliance on imported gasoline, curbing European exports to the region from approximately 430,000 bpd to just 285,000 bpd between January and July 2025.
In March 2025, Dangote’s jet fuel shipments to the United States peaked, helping push U.S. jet fuel imports to a two-year high of around 226,000 bpd—a level not seen since February 2023. Six tankers carrying about 1.7 million barrels docked in U.S. ports, showcasing the refinery’s growing global footprint . OPEC also confirmed that Dangote’s gasoline exports are beginning to significantly influence European fuel markets.
Industry sources reveal that Dangote received a record 595,000 bpd of crude in July alone, bringing it close to full operational capacity and further tightening its grip on regional markets . This surge in production is enabling the refinery to disrupt global fuel trade dynamics, emerging as a new “swing supplier” in the Atlantic Basin—powerful enough to alter supply flows and pricing structures.
Several European refiners, particularly those heavily dependent on gasoline production, are feeling the pressure. Some analysts estimate up to 300,000–400,000 bpd of refining capacity in Europe could become economically unsustainable, pushing certain plants toward possible closure unless they adapt.
Domestically, the Dangote Refinery’s rise has not been without controversy. Fuel marketers and petroleum retailers have raised alarms about its forward integration strategy—direct distribution of fuel across Nigeria—warning of creeping monopoly potential, job losses, and the shutdown of independent operators like modular refineries, tank farms, and fueling stations.
