Nigeria has recorded a staggering revenue shortfall of about N3.18 trillion from crude oil sales, despite a recent surge in production, according to new industry data. The decline has been linked to weaker global oil prices and market volatility, which have offset gains made from improved domestic output.
Figures show that while crude production levels climbed above previous months, earnings did not reflect the output increase due to price fluctuations in the international market. Analysts say this highlights Nigeria’s vulnerability to external shocks, as its economy remains heavily dependent on crude exports for foreign exchange and government revenue.
Industry experts explain that global crude benchmarks have been under pressure following concerns about oversupply, slowing demand from key economies, and geopolitical tensions affecting energy markets. These dynamics have kept prices below levels that would have allowed Nigeria to fully capitalize on its higher production volumes.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) confirmed that while production recovery efforts were beginning to yield results, the financial returns remained subdued. This, according to officials, underscores the urgency of diversifying revenue sources, strengthening domestic refining capacity, and cutting reliance on raw crude exports.
Stakeholders also warn that the revenue gap could strain government finances, particularly at a time when the country is grappling with high debt service obligations, subsidy removal pressures, and the need for increased social spending. They argue that unless crude earnings stabilize, the government may face more fiscal constraints in funding infrastructure and welfare programmes.
Oil sector unions and industry watchers are calling for urgent policy responses, including incentivising investments in local refining and boosting transparency in crude marketing. They stress that long-term solutions lie in value addition rather than continued dependence on international price swings.
Despite the revenue dip, authorities remain optimistic that recent improvements in security around oil facilities and sustained investments in the sector will keep production stable. However, experts caution that without a rebound in global oil prices, Nigeria may continue to record earnings shortfalls even as it pumps more barrels into the market.
