LAGOS — Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, said Friday that the Nigerian state oil company, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, has the opportunity to increase its stake in his multibillion-dollar refinery — but only once the facility has delivered on its next phase of growth.
In an interview with S&P Global Commodity Insights, Dangote said the door “remains open” for NNPC to boost its interest in the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals Free Zone Enterprise (DPRP), after the state-owned enterprise previously trimmed its stake to 7.2 percent.
Originally, NNPC had agreed to take a 20 percent equity position in the refinery, for roughly $2.76 billion. But by mid-2024, Dangote disclosed that NNPC’s effective interest had fallen because it had not fulfilled the payment obligation, reducing its shareholding to 7.2 percent.
“I want to demonstrate what this refinery can do, then we can sit down and talk,” Dangote told S&P Global, emphasizing that only after operational proof would further discussions about NNPC participation take place.
The refinery, located in the Lekki Free Zone in Lagos, has a current capacity of about 650,000 barrels per day and is being expanded with the ambition of eventually reaching 1.4 million b/d — which would make it one of the world’s largest single-train refining facilities.
For NNPC, the potential to increase its stake presents both an opportunity and a risk. On one side, a larger equity share in the refinery could help the federal government gain deeper exposure to refined petroleum value chains and reduce Nigeria’s dependence on fuel imports. On the other, the terms of the initial deal and payment shortfalls raise questions about strategic and commercial alignment between both parties.
Industry analysts say the move is also part of Dangote Group’s broader strategy to bring in external investors and list between 5 percent and 10 percent of DPRP’s equity on the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) within the next year. “We don’t want to keep more than 65-70 percent,” Dangote said of his holding intentions.
From a macroeconomic perspective, a higher stake by NNPC could align with Nigeria’s broader energy ambitions: refining crude domestically, capturing higher value, reducing foreign exchange outflows, and positioning the country as a regional energy hub.
But there are caveats. Dangote and an aide reportedly said the group would proceed cautiously before inviting additional participation from the state-owned company. Questions remain over feedstock supply, infrastructure readiness, corporate governance, and NNPC’s ability to meet financial obligations.
The fact that 60 percent of the refinery’s crude feedstock was reportedly supplied by NNPC as recently as 2024 bolsters the rationale for a deeper tie-up — yet it also underscores the dependency and coordination required between public and private sectors.
For international investors and global energy watchers, the story underscores a shift: Africa’s largest privately built refinery is evolving from a standalone industrial project into a partnership-driven enterprise where public-private synergies, listing strategy and global capital now intertwine.
As Dangote moves ahead with listing plans, capacity expansion and new partnerships, NNPC’s potential stake increase will likely depend on performance metrics, timely payments, and alignment of commercial terms that satisfy both the state-owned energy company and the billionaire industrialist driving one of Africa’s most ambitious infrastructure projects.
