Pay Up or Shut Down: Nigeria’s 2026 Tax Law Divides Citizens.

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A former Political Economic Adviser at the World Bank, Dr. Mahmoud Alfa
A former Political Economic Adviser at the World Bank, Dr. Mahmoud Alfa

ABUJA, Nigeria (FN) — A former political economic adviser at the World Bank, Dr. Mahmoud Alfa, has called on Nigerians to support the 2026 tax reform law, emphasizing that the success of President Bola Tinubu’s fiscal agenda hinges on public trust and responsible governance.

In a statement issued Friday in Abuja, Alfa, who also serves as CEO of Vibranium Group, described the Tinubu administration’s economic reforms as “bold and necessary,” noting that while progress is visible, skepticism remains among citizens.

“While the Tinubu-led administration promises reforms to fix the multiple-taxation problems to at least improve the ease of doing business in Nigeria, a survey with some of the citizens will easily show that the change is not where it should be yet, but there are positive improvements,” Alfa said.

He acknowledged that many Nigerians, particularly traders, continue to face multiple layers of taxation, despite the country being under-taxed relative to global standards. He argued that taxation is essential for national development and that Nigeria’s overreliance on debt is unsustainable.

“In Nigeria, the citizens will gladly evade tax, and there are hardly cases of citizens being jailed for tax evasion,” Alfa said. “Refusing to pay tax is a crime, same as stealing the taxes is a crime. It is more of a chicken-and-egg situation.”

Alfa stressed the need for mutual accountability, urging both citizens and government to rebuild trust. “Paying taxes and managing them transparently are two sides of the same coin,” he said.

He also commended Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, for leading public engagement efforts ahead of the law’s implementation on Jan. 1, 2026.

Oyedele recently projected that Nigerian states could earn over N4 trillion annually from the new Value Added Tax (VAT) structure, which will increase states’ share of VAT revenue to 55 percent. Speaking at the launch of the BudgIT State of States 2025 Report, he noted that while government revenues have surged — with Federation Account Allocation Committee transfers rising from N5.4 trillion in 2023 to N11.4 trillion in 2024 — many Nigerians have yet to feel the benefits.

“States are receiving more money than ever before. But there is a paradox: while governments have more naira, ordinary Nigerians have less disposable income in their pockets,” Oyedele said.

He urged state governors to prioritize investments in infrastructure, education, and healthcare, warning that poor implementation could undermine the goals of the reform.

The 2026 tax reform law, signed by President Tinubu in June 2025, consolidates and modernizes Nigeria’s tax framework. It aims to streamline tax collection, reduce redundancies, and improve compliance while fostering fiscal independence for subnational governments.

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