WASHINGTON (FN) — As voters in Virginia and New Jersey head to the polls Tuesday, President Donald Trump is watching closely, viewing the contests as an early referendum on his administration and a preview of next year’s midterm elections. Though his name isn’t on the ballot, Trump’s influence looms large over both races.
Speaking to Senate Republicans in the Rose Garden, Trump emphasized the stakes of the 2026 midterms, warning that his policy agenda could be reversed if Democrats regain control of Congress. He also voiced concern over the New York City mayoral race, singling out Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, as emblematic of what he called “radical left lunatics.”
Trump has selectively engaged in the current races, fully endorsing Republican Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey while offering limited support in Virginia, where GOP candidate Winsome Earle-Sears faces an uphill battle against Democrat Abigail Spanberger. Trump’s aides say he has monitored developments and directed campaign resources to boost turnout.
In New Jersey, Trump expressed optimism, citing his improved performance in the state during the 2024 presidential election. Despite losing to Kamala Harris by six points, he narrowed the margin from his 2020 defeat to Joe Biden. Democrats, however, maintain a significant voter registration advantage of over 800,000.
Virginia’s election is unfolding under the shadow of a prolonged government shutdown, affecting federal workers and military personnel across the state. Spanberger has maintained a steady lead, prompting Trump to limit his involvement to remote efforts, including a tele-rally and a scheduled phone address from the Oval Office.
Former President Barack Obama campaigned in both states over the weekend, urging Democrats to resist what he described as “lawlessness and carelessness” from the current administration. His remarks in Newark underscored the partisan divide and the high stakes of the off-year elections.
The outcomes in Virginia and New Jersey could signal broader trends ahead of the 2026 midterms. Democratic victories may reflect voter dissatisfaction, while Republican wins could suggest Trump’s continued viability as a political force. Both parties are using Trump’s polarizing presence to mobilize their bases.
Redistricting efforts have intensified nationwide, with Republican-led states redrawing congressional maps to secure more seats. Trump has encouraged these moves, citing past investigations and impeachment proceedings as motivation to solidify GOP control. Democratic-led states are pursuing similar strategies.
While Trump is not on the ballot, his presence is central to campaign messaging. Democratic voters cite opposition to his policies as a driving force, while Republican supporters express fatigue over constant references to the president. The results will be scrutinized for signs of Trump’s enduring impact on American politics.
“If you have a great presidency, it only makes sense that you win the midterms,” Trump said, reflecting on historical trends. “There might be some dark, deep psychological reason where they want to vote the opposite way. I don’t know what it is.”
