HAVANA (FN) — Cuba is facing renewed economic and political uncertainty after a strike in Venezuela rattled the government of President Nicolás Maduro, exposing Havana’s deep dependence on its closest regional ally for both energy supplies and strategic security.
For years, Cuba has relied heavily on Venezuelan oil shipments to keep its economy running, while Cuban security and intelligence personnel have played a central role in protecting Maduro’s government. The disruption in Venezuela now threatens to sever one of Cuba’s last remaining external lifelines, raising fears of fuel shortages, blackouts and further strain on an already fragile economy.
Cuban officials condemned the strike as an attack on Venezuelan sovereignty and reaffirmed their support for Maduro, but the developments have sent ripples of anxiety through the island. Venezuela has long supplied Cuba with subsidized oil under preferential agreements, often in exchange for Cuban doctors, advisers and security support — a relationship that has become increasingly critical as Cuba struggles with rising inflation, food shortages and an aging energy infrastructure.
The sudden instability in Caracas highlights how closely Cuba’s fortunes are tied to events beyond its borders, reviving memories of past economic shocks when foreign allies collapsed or withdrew support. While authorities project confidence, many Cubans privately worry that disruptions in Venezuelan oil flows could deepen daily hardships and force new rounds of rationing and power cuts.
Energy analysts say Venezuela has already been struggling to maintain oil production and exports, limiting how much it can supply even its closest allies. Any prolonged disruption could hit Cuba particularly hard, as the island imports the vast majority of its fuel and has limited capacity to pay for oil on the open market.
Rolling blackouts have become more frequent across Cuba in recent years, driven by fuel shortages, aging power plants and reduced oil deliveries from Venezuela. The latest developments have heightened concerns that electricity cuts could worsen, affecting transportation, food distribution and basic services.
“People here are worried because everything depends on fuel — buses, electricity, even cooking,” said a 54-year-old Havana resident who asked not to be named for fear of repercussions. “When Venezuela has problems, we feel it immediately.”
Deep Security and Political Ties
Cuba’s relationship with Venezuela extends far beyond energy. For years, Cuban security and intelligence advisers have operated in Venezuela, helping protect Maduro’s government amid political unrest, sanctions and repeated challenges from the opposition.
That cooperation has made Cuba deeply invested in Maduro’s survival, analysts say, while also increasing Havana’s vulnerability when Venezuela faces instability.
“Cuba doesn’t just lose oil if Venezuela falters,” said a Caribbean-based political analyst. “It loses strategic influence and a key partner that has helped it withstand U.S. pressure.”
Cuban officials have not publicly detailed the extent of their security involvement, but Havana has consistently defended Maduro, describing Venezuela as a victim of foreign aggression and economic warfare.
Public Endurance, Private Anxiety
On the streets of Havana and Santiago, many Cubans express a familiar mix of resilience and fatigue. Economic hardship has driven record migration from the island in recent years, and the prospect of deeper shortages has intensified uncertainty.
“We’ve lived through worse, but that doesn’t mean it won’t hurt,” said a 29-year-old engineer in central Cuba. “Every time fuel runs short, everything stops.”
The government has urged calm, emphasizing national unity and solidarity with Venezuela. State media have framed the situation as part of broader regional tensions, while avoiding detailed discussion of how oil supplies could be affected.
Voices From the Cuban Diaspora
Cubans living abroad say the developments have renewed concern for family members back home, many of whom already struggle to secure food, medicine and reliable electricity.
“My parents plan their lives around the blackout schedule,” said María Fernández, a Cuban-American living in Miami. “When you hear Venezuela is in trouble, you know it’s going to mean more hardship for them.”
Others say the crisis underscores how dependent Cuba remains on political alliances rather than economic reform.
“As long as Cuba’s economy depends on one ally at a time, people on the island will keep paying the price when those alliances collapse,” said a Cuban entrepreneur now living in Spain.
What Comes Next
It remains unclear how quickly or severely Venezuela’s turmoil will affect oil shipments to Cuba. Any reduction could force Havana to seek alternative suppliers, deepen austerity measures or impose additional controls on fuel and electricity use.
For many Cubans, the uncertainty itself is the most immediate burden.
“We don’t know what’s coming,” said the Havana resident. “But we know we will have to endure it.”
