New regulatory figures reveal a major shift towards domestic refining, yet lower petrol deliveries, rising consumption and continued dependence on imports raise questions about Nigeria’s energy security and fuel affordability.
Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lekki, Lagos State, has become Nigeria’s main domestic petrol supplier as the country reduces its longstanding dependence on imported fuel.
Nigeria’s petrol imports declined by 30 percent in September 2026 as domestic refining continued to transform the country’s fuel market, but fresh regulatory data show that the reduction coincided with falling local deliveries and rising consumption. Figures from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) indicate that average daily petrol imports dropped from 14.6 million litres in August to 10.2 million litres in September. Domestic refinery deliveries also fell from 35.9 million to 28.5 million litres daily, bringing total petrol receipts down by 23.4 percent to 38.7 million litres. The development highlights both Nigeria’s progress towards reducing reliance on imported petroleum products and the challenges of ensuring that locally refined fuel reaches consumers in sufficient quantities.
Despite the monthly decline, domestic refining remained the country’s largest source of petrol, accounting for approximately 73.6 percent of fuel receipts in September, compared with 26.4 percent supplied through imports. The latest figures represent a significant departure from Nigeria’s previous dependence on foreign refineries. Regulatory data published in October 2025 showed that imports accounted for nearly 69 percent of total petrol supply between August 2024 and early October 2025, while domestic refineries contributed about 31 percent. For the more recent 13-month period ending September 2026, domestic supply represented approximately 61.2 percent of receipts. Although these reporting periods are not identical, the figures illustrate a substantial shift towards local production since Dangote Refinery began supplying petrol in September 2024. However, a higher domestic share does not necessarily mean that the country has achieved complete fuel self-sufficiency.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lekki, Lagos State, remains central to this transformation. According to the regulator’s September report, the refinery operated at approximately 105.98 percent of its nominal crude-processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, processing an average of 689,000 barrels daily. Operating above nominal capacity reflects the regulator’s reported processing figures and does not mean that the refinery’s formally stated capacity has changed. The facility produced approximately 47.22 million litres of petrol daily, representing an increase from 41.94 million litres in August. However, only about 28.5 million litres were delivered to the Nigerian market each day, while approximately 15.47 million litres were exported. The figures reveal an important distinction between petrol manufactured at a refinery and the quantity actually supplied to domestic consumers. Higher refinery production therefore does not automatically translate into higher petrol availability within Nigeria.
The difference between petrol entering the market and the volume distributed to consumers provides another important insight into Nigeria’s fuel supply situation. NMDPRA data showed that daily petrol truck-out, used by the regulator as an indicator of consumption, increased by seven percent from 41.5 million litres in August to 44.4 million litres in September. By comparison, average daily receipts stood at 38.7 million litres, creating an accounting difference of approximately 5.7 million litres per day. This does not establish that Nigeria experienced a physical shortage of that amount, because marketers and distribution facilities may draw on stocks received during previous periods. Receipts and truck-out figures also measure different stages of the supply chain. Nevertheless, the difference illustrates why fuel imports, domestic deliveries, consumption and inventories must be examined together when assessing supply security.
Fuel prices and supply reliability remain important concerns for Nigerian households, transport operators and businesses despite increasing domestic refining capacity.
Nigeria’s petrol inventory figures offer further insight into the country’s preparedness for possible supply disruptions. The regulator reported that national petrol stock cover stood at 23.9 days in September, compared with 22.9 days in August. Although this represented a modest improvement, it remained 6.1 days below the 30-day benchmark used by the authority. A separate report published on October 26 said stock cover had remained below that benchmark for seven consecutive months, raising concerns about supply resilience ahead of increased year-end travel and commercial activity. Stock cover estimates how long existing inventories could support demand at an assumed consumption rate. Falling below the benchmark does not necessarily mean filling stations will run out of petrol, but it indicates a smaller buffer against disruptions in refinery operations, imports or distribution.
The expansion of local refining has also not eliminated the economic pressures affecting pump prices. NMDPRA’s September data placed indicative petrol prices at approximately ₦1,371 per litre in Lagos, compared with about ₦1,465 in Maiduguri, reflecting differences in distribution costs and regional market conditions. These figures relate to September and should not be interpreted as prevailing prices at every filling station in October. Petrol remains a significant expense for transport operators, households and businesses that rely on generators, meaning price increases can affect transportation, production and the movement of goods. Domestic refining may reduce expenditure on imported finished petroleum products, but crude oil prices, exchange rates, financing, refinery operating costs and distribution expenses continue to influence retail prices. The benefits to consumers therefore depend not only on where fuel is produced but also on how efficiently and competitively it reaches the market.
The decline in imports also reflects regulatory and commercial developments rather than rising domestic production alone. The NMDPRA linked part of September’s reduction to the exhaustion of previously approved import permit volumes, while domestic deliveries declined during the same month. In September, the regulator separately approved approximately 830,000 tonnes of petrol imports for the fourth quarter of 2026, indicating that imported fuel remained part of the country’s supply strategy. That approach highlights a continuing policy challenge: supporting domestic refining while maintaining adequate market supply and competition. Restrictions or reductions in imports may strengthen demand for locally produced petrol, but they can also place additional pressure on domestic producers when refinery deliveries fluctuate. Maintaining a reliable balance between imports, local production and inventories remains essential to limiting supply disruptions.
Nigeria’s state-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna recorded no petrol production in September, according to regulatory reporting.
Crude oil availability and the performance of Nigeria’s other refineries remain additional obstacles to long-term energy self-sufficiency. Between January and September 2026, domestic refineries received approximately 156.5 million barrels of crude oil, of which 125.85 million barrels, or 80.4 percent, came from Nigerian production. The remaining 30.66 million barrels were imported, demonstrating that local refining still involves foreign feedstock purchases. Dangote Refinery processed approximately 689,000 barrels of crude daily in September despite receiving an average of 618,000 barrels, with the difference supplied from existing inventories. Meanwhile, the state-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna recorded no production during the month. Their inactivity leaves the country’s petrol supply heavily dependent on Dangote Refinery and underscores unresolved questions about refinery rehabilitation, crude allocation and the need for a more diversified domestic processing industry.
The historical transformation of Nigeria’s petrol market provides important context for the latest figures. Despite decades as a major crude oil producer, the country relied heavily on imported refined products because its domestic refineries operated below capacity or remained inactive for extended periods. S&P Global Commodity Insights reported that Nigerian gasoline imports averaged approximately 419,000 barrels per day in 2022, falling to about 242,000 barrels daily in 2024 as domestic refining capacity expanded and demand conditions changed. The entry of Dangote Refinery into the petrol market in September 2024 accelerated a broader transition that industry assessments had already begun tracking. However, lower imports do not automatically eliminate foreign-exchange exposure, because refineries may still import crude oil, blending components, equipment and other inputs. Nigeria’s longer-term economic gains will depend on the stability of local production, access to affordable feedstock and the extent to which domestic refining reduces overall import expenditure.
As Nigeria advances its ambition to become less dependent on imported petroleum products, the September figures demonstrate progress alongside significant remaining vulnerabilities. Domestic refineries now provide most petrol received into the market, but reduced monthly deliveries, a continuing need for imports, inventory levels below the regulator’s benchmark and high retail prices show that supply security cannot be measured by import reductions alone. The coming months will test whether refining operations can maintain sufficient domestic deliveries, whether crude supply arrangements remain reliable and whether policymakers can balance local production with the need for adequate market reserves. For Nigerian consumers, the ultimate measure of success will be consistent fuel availability, competitive prices and lower exposure to disruptions, rather than simply the percentage of petrol produced within the country.
