The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has warned that global trade growth will slow significantly in 2026, even as Africa and other emerging economies are expected to provide the main drivers of expansion. The forecast reflects mounting geopolitical tensions, rising costs, and weaker demand in advanced economies, which are likely to dampen overall trade flows.
According to UNCTAD’s latest Global Trade Outlook, the world economy is entering a period of uncertainty marked by sluggish investment and persistent inflationary pressures. Developed economies, particularly in Europe and North America, are projected to experience flat or negative trade growth as consumer demand weakens and supply chain disruptions continue to weigh on production.
In contrast, Africa and other emerging markets are expected to buck the trend. UNCTAD notes that African economies are increasingly diversifying their exports, investing in infrastructure, and leveraging regional trade agreements such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). These factors are expected to help the continent achieve modest but positive trade growth in 2026, even as global volumes stagnate.
Asia’s emerging economies, including India and Southeast Asian nations, are also projected to contribute significantly to global trade expansion. Their growing consumer bases, digital transformation, and manufacturing capacity make them resilient to global shocks. Latin America, meanwhile, is expected to benefit from rising demand for commodities, though political instability in some countries could limit gains.
UNCTAD’s report highlights that global trade in goods may grow by less than 2% in 2026, compared to stronger performances in previous years. Services trade, particularly in digital and financial sectors, is expected to remain more robust, providing a cushion against the slowdown in physical goods.
The organization also warns that geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, could further disrupt trade flows. Protectionist policies and trade restrictions are on the rise, undermining multilateral cooperation and creating uncertainty for businesses worldwide.
For Africa, the outlook is cautiously optimistic. UNCTAD emphasizes that the continent’s youthful population, expanding digital economy, and regional integration efforts could position it as a key growth engine in the coming years. However, challenges such as infrastructure deficits, debt burdens, and climate risks remain significant obstacles.
Emerging economies are urged to strengthen resilience by investing in sustainable industries, enhancing trade facilitation, and deepening regional cooperation. UNCTAD stresses that inclusive growth and fair trade practices will be essential to ensure that the benefits of trade reach ordinary citizens, not just elites.
In conclusion, while global trade is set to slow in 2026, Africa and other emerging markets offer a glimmer of hope. Their dynamism and adaptability could help offset stagnation in advanced economies, reshaping the global trade landscape in the process. The challenge, however, lies in ensuring that this growth is sustainable, equitable, and resilient to the shocks of an increasingly volatile world.
