A new United Nations climate report warns that existing government policies could push global temperatures 2.8°C above preindustrial levels this century, while even full delivery of national climate pledges would leave the world facing dangerous warming of approximately 2.6°C.
The United Nations has issued a fresh warning that the global warming outlook has deteriorated, with the world moving further away from the temperature limits established under the Paris Climate Agreement. In its Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return, released on Wednesday, October 21, the United Nations Environment Programme said existing government policies could lead to approximately 2.8°C of warming above preindustrial levels within this century, with temperatures potentially rising further thereafter. Even if countries fully implement their current national climate commitments and maintain comparable efforts, warming could still reach 2.6°C. The assessment, released in Nairobi ahead of the COP31 climate conference in Turkey, links the worsening outlook to insufficient emissions reductions, the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised historical emissions estimates. It warns that the world can no longer realistically avoid exceeding the 1.5°C threshold and must instead concentrate on limiting how far temperatures rise before attempting to bring them down again.
The report presents three important temperature projections that demonstrate the gap between government commitments and international climate objectives. Under existing policies, global warming could reach 2.8°C, while full implementation of countries’ nationally determined contributions, known as NDCs, would reduce the projection to approximately 2.6°C. Even the most optimistic scenario assessed, involving fulfilment of national climate pledges and additional net zero commitments, would limit warming to about 2.1°C during this century. Each of these outcomes exceeds the Paris Agreement’s ambition of limiting warming to 1.5°C and keeping the increase well below 2°C. The latest assessment also represents a deterioration compared with the previous year’s projections, when full implementation of climate pledges was associated with a temperature rise of between 2.3°C and 2.5°C. UNEP said the latest national commitments have made little difference to the overall trajectory, demonstrating that announced climate targets remain far weaker than the reductions required.
The United Nations identified the continuing release of greenhouse gases as the central obstacle to meeting international temperature goals. Carbon dioxide emissions from coal, oil and natural gas remain a major contributor to global warming, alongside emissions from agriculture, industrial production and changes in land use. Although renewable energy deployment has accelerated and climate policies have produced measurable reductions in some countries and sectors, global progress has not been sufficient to reverse the long term accumulation of heat trapping gases in the atmosphere. The 2026 report calculates that emissions must fall by 18 percent by 2030, 45 percent by 2035 and 69 percent by 2040 compared with 2025 levels to follow its lowest possible temperature overshoot scenario. These reductions would require rapid changes in electricity generation, transportation, manufacturing, building efficiency and land management. Current national pledges, however, would deliver emissions cuts of only about 5 to 8 percent by 2030, illustrating the considerable distance between existing plans and the trajectory scientists say is needed.
Flooding affects residential communities in South Asia. The UN warns that higher global temperatures will increase the risks associated with extreme rainfall, flooding and other climate disasters.
The report places particular emphasis on the consequences of allowing temperatures to temporarily exceed 1.5°C, a process scientists call overshoot. UNEP estimates that its lowest possible overshoot pathway would see global temperatures peak at approximately 1.7°C to 1.8°C around the middle of this century before potentially returning to 1.5°C or below by 2100. Even this outcome would provide only about a 50 percent chance of achieving the proposed return, and it would require unusually rapid emissions reductions together with large scale removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. UN Secretary General António Guterres said exceeding the threshold should not be treated as a reason to abandon efforts to control warming. He argued that countries must work to keep the overshoot as limited and brief as possible. The report warns that every additional five years of carbon dioxide emissions at today’s levels could increase peak global warming by approximately 0.1°C, making delays increasingly consequential for people, ecosystems and national economies.
The United Nations also highlighted major uncertainties surrounding the technologies that could eventually help reverse some of the warming. According to UNEP, returning temperatures to 1.5°C or below under the lowest overshoot scenario would require removing and permanently storing approximately 320 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide during this century. That amount is equivalent to roughly eight years of global carbon dioxide emissions at 2024 levels. Possible methods include restoring natural carbon absorbing ecosystems and developing technologies that capture carbon directly from the atmosphere, but their potential scale, cost, environmental effects and long term reliability differ considerably. UNEP cautioned that depending heavily on future carbon removal introduces substantial technological and socioeconomic risks. The findings reinforce the importance of reducing emissions now rather than assuming that future technologies will reverse the damage. Carbon removal may become an important component of climate strategies, but it cannot safely replace immediate cuts in fossil fuel emissions and other major sources of greenhouse gases.
Industrial facilities and fossil fuel power generation remain major sources of greenhouse gas emissions. The UN says emissions reductions must accelerate to limit future warming.
The new assessment comes more than a decade after the adoption of the Paris Agreement in December 2015, when countries agreed to hold the increase in average global temperatures well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. That agreement was a landmark in international climate diplomacy because it established a common framework requiring governments to submit and periodically strengthen national emissions reduction plans. Since then, climate policies and advances in renewable energy have reduced some of the world’s most severe projected warming outcomes. Earlier projections around the time of the Paris Agreement suggested possible increases of approximately 3°C to 3.5°C, substantially higher than some current scenarios. However, the latest findings demonstrate that this historical progress has not been fast enough to secure the agreement’s principal temperature objectives. UNEP’s 2025 report had projected warming of 2.3°C to 2.5°C under full implementation of national pledges, compared with 2.6°C in the latest assessment. The historical comparison shows that climate action has produced measurable benefits while also illustrating how setbacks in policy and emissions trends can weaken the expected results.
For developing countries, particularly those in Africa, the worsening outlook presents serious concerns about food production, water resources, public health and economic stability. Rising temperatures can intensify heatwaves, increase water demand and worsen drought conditions, while changing rainfall patterns may contribute to destructive floods. In Nigeria, where agriculture provides livelihoods for millions of people, unpredictable rainfall and extreme heat can affect crop yields, livestock production and food prices. Coastal communities also face risks associated with rising sea levels, erosion and flooding, particularly where drainage systems and protective infrastructure are inadequate. The consequences are especially challenging for lower income populations with limited access to insurance, reliable healthcare or resilient housing. Although the UNEP report provides global temperature projections rather than a specific forecast for Nigeria, the implications reinforce the importance of adaptation planning, early warning systems and investment in climate resilient agriculture. Developing countries have also continued to argue that wealthier economies should provide greater financial and technological support, reflecting differences in historical emissions and national capacity to respond.
Despite the deteriorating outlook, the United Nations identified opportunities to accelerate emissions reductions through policies and technologies that have already demonstrated results. UNEP reviewed more than 220 climate policy evaluations and found evidence that regulatory measures, renewable energy investment and economic incentives have successfully reduced emissions in a range of countries and sectors. Electricity sector policies included in the review produced average emissions reductions of approximately 9 percent, while measures such as carbon taxes and emissions trading systems achieved reductions of between 5 and 13 percent in the evaluated circumstances. The report also found that renewable electricity capacity has expanded much faster than expected when the Paris Agreement was adopted, with particularly strong growth in solar power. UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said countries should urgently expand successful policies to achieve sustained reductions while protecting communities from worsening climate impacts. However, the report cautioned that progress remains uneven and that successful measures in individual countries have not yet been replicated on the global scale required.
The latest findings arrive ahead of the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP31, scheduled to take place in Turkey, where governments are expected to face renewed pressure to strengthen emissions reduction commitments and financing arrangements. The report provides evidence relevant to negotiations on the transition away from fossil fuels, the expansion of renewable electricity, energy efficiency and protection of forests. It also highlights differing perspectives on how countries should manage the transition. Governments that depend heavily on coal, oil or gas revenues often emphasise energy security, employment and the economic cost of rapid changes, while climate vulnerable countries and environmental organisations argue that delaying reductions will increase future damage and adaptation expenses. These concerns require consideration within international negotiations, but the scientific assessment is clear that current emissions trajectories remain inconsistent with the most ambitious Paris objectives. UNEP stressed that political commitments must translate into concrete policies capable of changing the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere.
As of October 21, 2026, the United Nations’ assessment indicates that the world is still heading towards approximately 2.8°C of warming under current policies, with existing national commitments capable of reducing the projection only to about 2.6°C if fully implemented and sustained. The report establishes that avoiding any exceedance of 1.5°C is no longer a realistic pathway, although limiting peak warming and eventually returning temperatures towards that threshold remain possible under exceptionally demanding conditions. Achieving the lowest overshoot scenario would require global greenhouse gas emissions to fall by 18 percent by 2030, 45 percent by 2035 and 69 percent by 2040 relative to 2025. The findings leave governments with a major challenge: translate the rapid growth of cleaner technologies into much larger and faster reductions across the global economy. The warning also underscores the importance of protecting vulnerable communities from climate impacts that cannot now be avoided. As countries prepare for further negotiations, the significance of the report lies in its conclusion that every additional fraction of warming matters, and that the decisions taken during the coming years will influence the severity of climate risks for generations.
