The Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest oil refinery, has reached a significant milestone in its production capacity, surging to 610,000 barrels per day. This remarkable achievement positions the refinery to reshape the continent’s oil market and potentially make Nigeria a net exporter of gasoline. According to Benedict George, Editor of Argus European Products Report, the refinery is “running more reliably and strongly than ever before,” with run rates thriving near full capacity.
The Dangote Refinery’s impact on Nigeria’s downstream oil market has been substantial, with the country’s net import position for gasoline expected to flip, potentially making it a net exporter as early as this year. The refinery’s competitive pricing has forced trading houses to look beyond Nigeria for business opportunities, and its cargoes are now supplying neighboring countries, making Dangote a regional force in fuel distribution. Europe’s grip on Africa’s gasoline market is weakening, with Nigerian gasoline imports from Europe halving between May and June 2025, falling to under 250,000 tonnes, the lowest in nearly a decade.
The refinery’s dominance is further amplified by the faltering performance of state-owned facilities, with the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries briefly revived in late 2024 but since going offline again. Dangote’s growing capacity has also spilled into West Africa’s fuel trade, displacing European imports that once dominated the region. The company’s acquisition of thousands of CNG-powered trucks has strengthened its inland reach, countering earlier claims that poor road infrastructure would restrict local supply.
As the Dangote Refinery continues to ramp up production, it is expected to play an even greater role in regional and global energy supply chains. With plans to expand its capacity to 700,000 barrels per day, the refinery is poised to become a major player in the global petroleum market. The refinery’s success story is not just about hitting production milestones; it’s about changing the balance of power in Africa’s oil market and potentially freeing billions of dollars for public investment, creating thousands of jobs, and accelerating industrial development.
The Dangote Refinery’s emergence has significant implications for the global energy landscape, with European refiners facing increased competition and potential closure. According to analysts, 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day of Europe’s refining capacity might face closure due to increased global gasoline production. As the refinery continues to shape the dynamics of global oil supply and demand, its impact on the energy industry will be closely watched.
