Artificial intelligence may have offered a glimpse into the outcome of football’s most prestigious individual prize. According to a forecast by French data analytics firm AVISIA, Paris Saint-Germain’s winger Ousmane Dembélé is the frontrunner to win the 2025 Ballon d’Or, with a commanding 72 percent chance of claiming the trophy.
The model, which uses AI-driven analysis, placed Barcelona’s teenage sensation Lamine Yamal in second position with a 56 percent probability, while PSG midfielder Vitinha came third at 40 percent. The forecast, reported by Gazeta Express, has drawn attention for its innovative methodology, which goes beyond traditional statistical performance measures.
AVISIA’s algorithm evaluates a blend of individual brilliance and team success, factoring in achievements in domestic leagues, triumphs in international tournaments, personal performance data, media visibility, and global recognition. One of its standout features is the “journalistic influence” parameter, which assesses voting patterns among journalists based on factors such as nationality, club affiliation, and stylistic preferences.
By combining these diverse inputs, the model claims to deliver a more comprehensive and realistic prediction of how Ballon d’Or votes may unfold. Analysts note that this approach considers not only on-field numbers but also the historical and political weight often associated with the award.
Dembélé’s position as favorite underscores his resurgence at PSG, where his pace, creativity, and consistency have been pivotal. However, the AI forecast cautions that the race remains open. Rising star Yamal, who was born in 2007 and has dazzled with Barcelona and Spain, is seen as a potential disruptor. Meanwhile, Vitinha’s breakthrough performances for club and country ensure he remains a credible contender.
The results also highlight a shift in football’s power balance, with PSG and Barcelona dominating the top three projected spots. This reflects both clubs’ strong seasons and the prominence of their players in European competitions and media coverage.
While Dembélé leads the AI model’s rankings, football remains unpredictable, and human voters could defy algorithmic logic. Fans and analysts alike will find out the definitive outcome when the 2025 Ballon d’Or ceremony takes place on Monday, September 22, at the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris.
Until then, speculation will continue, but if AVISIA’s model proves accurate, Ousmane Dembélé may be on the verge of the greatest individual honor of his career.
