As Aliko Dangote prepares to invest between 15 billion and 16 billion dollars in a major oil refinery in Kenya, an important question is emerging at home: What role is the Nigerian government playing in helping one of the country’s largest companies expand into East Africa?
The proposed 700,000 barrel a day refinery in Lamu has received enthusiastic backing from Kenyan President William Ruto, whose government sees the project as a way to reduce fuel imports, create jobs and turn Kenya into a regional energy hub. “We have to make those decisions that will change our country, that will transform our country,” Ruto has said of the project. East African governments have also been discussed as possible investors in the refinery.
What is less visible is comparable support from Abuja. Public statements reviewed as of Sept. 9 show no specific announcement from President Bola Tinubu committing diplomatic, financial or government backed assistance to the Lamu project. There has also been no publicly announced Nigerian government financing package, investment guarantee or formal advocacy initiative tied specifically to the refinery. That does not prove that no discussions are taking place privately, but any such assistance has not been made public.
The contrast is notable because Tinubu has been an outspoken supporter of Dangote’s investments inside Nigeria. His administration introduced the naira for crude arrangement that helped support domestic refining, and the president has repeatedly praised Dangote’s contribution to industrial development. Speaking recently about private sector investment, Tinubu said, “It is one reason why I backed Aliko Dangote even before I became a President.” His government has also described the Lagos refinery as strategically important to Nigeria’s energy security and economic ambitions.
Nigeria has also publicly committed itself to stronger economic diplomacy with Kenya. In February, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Bianca Odumegwu Ojukwu identified trade facilitation as a priority in relations between the two countries. She encouraged close coordination between the Nigerian High Commission in Nairobi and Kenyan institutions and said the Foreign Ministry was prepared to facilitate communication and coordination between government agencies where necessary.
Those commitments make Dangote’s Lamu project a significant test of what Nigerian commercial diplomacy looks like in practice. The Nigerian High Commission in Kenya says one of its objectives is to strengthen bilateral ties and foster economic cooperation, and it maintains a Trade and Investment section. Its publicly available business information, however, is largely focused on attracting investors into Nigeria rather than providing detailed services for Nigerian companies expanding into Kenya. No public material reviewed on the mission’s website specifically identifies assistance being provided to Dangote’s refinery.
Other countries use their diplomatic missions more aggressively to support national companies abroad. The United States, for example, operates a dedicated Commercial Service at its embassy in Nairobi. Trade specialists help American businesses identify partners and opportunities, conduct due diligence, understand local markets and navigate regulatory problems. American firms competing for public sector contracts can also seek government advocacy and guidance. The Nairobi office even has specialists covering energy, oil and gas related industries.
Such assistance does not mean a government should finance every overseas investment by one of its companies or interfere with another country’s regulatory process. Commercial diplomacy can instead involve arranging meetings with ministers and regulators, helping resolve administrative obstacles, supporting negotiations over infrastructure, providing market intelligence and advocating for fair treatment. For a project the size of Dangote’s proposed refinery, those relationships can become especially important as the company confronts financing, crude supply, environmental approvals and major infrastructure requirements.
There has been some broader engagement between Abuja, Nairobi and Nigerian business leaders. Tinubu travelled to Kenya for the Africa Forward Summit in May with senior ministers, while Dangote and other leading Nigerian business figures were also present. Nigerian ministers held meetings with Kenyan counterparts on investment and industrial cooperation. Yet the public record of those meetings did not announce specific Nigerian government support for the Lamu refinery. That distinction is important because general diplomatic engagement is not the same as an organised commercial advocacy programme for a Nigerian investor.
Dangote’s Kenyan expansion therefore presents Abuja with a wider policy question. Nigeria frequently speaks about African economic integration, the African Continental Free Trade Area and the need for Nigerian companies to become continental champions. Supporting legitimate Nigerian businesses abroad through professional commercial diplomacy could help translate those ambitions into practical economic influence. The issue is not whether government should build Dangote’s refinery for him, but whether Nigeria’s diplomatic machinery should be visibly working alongside Nigerian companies making some of Africa’s largest cross border investments.
