LONDON (FN) The war in Iran is threatening global food security, with fertiliser shortages putting up to 10 billion meals a week at risk, according to Yara International CEO Svein Tore Holsether. Hostilities in the Gulf have blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting supplies of nitrogen and phosphate critical to crop yields. Holsether warned that the crisis could reduce crop yields by as much as 50 percent in the first season, with poorer nations bearing the brunt. Fertiliser prices have already surged 80 percent since fighting began, raising fears of a bidding war for food between rich and poor nations.
Across continents, farmers say the crisis is already hitting home. “We’re so strained financially coming into this issue. We’ve had record losses the last couple years, and then to have input prices increase yet again, it just really couldn’t happen at a worse time,” said Todd Littleton, a Tennessee farmer who expects to pay S100,000 more for fertiliser this season, a 40 percent spike from last year. In Punjab, India, wheat farmer Rajinder Singh said families are cutting back on fertiliser use. “Prices are impossible. That means lower yields, and lower income for families like mine.” Kenyan maize farmer Grace Mwangi added: “Without fertiliser, our harvest will shrink. We fear hunger in our own homes, not just in the market.”
Governments are scrambling to respond. “We’re being told that many of our farmers that haven’t preordered their fertiliser may not even obtain the fertiliser they’re going to need during the season,” said Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation. Ethiopia’s Agriculture Minister Alemayehu Tesfaye warned: “We are appealing for emergency support to secure fertiliser supplies before the planting season ends.” In Brussels, EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski said Europe must prepare for higher food prices. “We cannot ignore the ripple effects. This is not just a regional conflict, it is a global food crisis.” Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that high energy prices are compounding the crisis, as farmers face rising costs for diesel, irrigation, and transport.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 30 percent of global urea trade passes, is largely blocked. Countries such as Ethiopia, which depends on Gulf imports for 90 percent of its nitrogen fertiliser, face critical shortages. U.S. imports are hit as well, with about 15 percent of fertiliser imports coming from the Middle East.
This crisis echoes past disruptions. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted grain exports, leading to shortages across Africa and the Middle East. The COVID-19 pandemic caused supply chain breakdowns and spikes in food and fertiliser prices worldwide. The 1970s oil crisis raised fertiliser costs, contributing to global food inflation. Each case underscores how geopolitical conflicts and energy disruptions ripple through agriculture, creating hunger crises far beyond the battlefield.
While Europe and the U.S. may absorb higher food costs, experts warn that developing nations risk famine if fertiliser shortages persist. Aid agencies are calling for urgent international cooperation to stabilize supply chains and prevent widespread hunger. Holsether’s warning is stark: without immediate action, billions of meals will vanish from global tables, deepening inequality and sparking humanitarian crises across continents.
