LONDON (FN) — Oil prices fell sharply Monday as hopes grew that the United States and Iran could finalize a peace deal to end months of conflict that has disrupted global energy flows. The prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route, also lifted Asian stock markets, with Japan’s Nikkei index surging past 65,000 for the first time.
Global benchmark Brent crude dropped 5.5% to S97.90 a barrel, while U.S.-traded crude fell 5.9% to S90.93. Prices remain well above pre-war levels, when Brent traded around S70, but the decline reflects optimism that negotiations are nearing a breakthrough.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking in New Delhi, said negotiators had “a pretty solid thing on the table” and suggested an agreement could be reached as early as Monday. President Donald Trump, who has been directly involved in talks, said the deal would include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes. The waterway has been closed since late February, when fighting escalated.
Trump said he had spoken with leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar about a “Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to peace.” He also confirmed a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, insisting any deal would “absolutely” prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Still, he urged caution, writing on Truth Social: “Both sides must take their time and get it right. There can be no mistakes.”
Iranian officials acknowledged progress but warned that differences remain. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei accused Washington of “contradictory statements,” even as he confirmed positions had converged in recent days.
Energy analysts said the market reaction was immediate but cautioned that supply chains would take months to normalize. Saul Kavonic of MST Financial noted that “even in the most optimistic scenario, oil markets will remain tight through 2027 given the time required to repair damaged facilities and rebuild depleted stocks.” Shipping expert Lars Jensen added that carriers would be hesitant to return to the Persian Gulf, citing risks such as sea mines.
Similar episodes have rattled energy markets in the past. In 2019, attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz briefly sent oil prices soaring, while the 1990 Gulf War disrupted supplies for months. Analysts say the current crisis has been more severe, given the prolonged closure of the strait and record depletion of global reserves.
Reactions have been mixed. On social media, many welcomed the price drop, with one user writing, “Finally some relief at the pump.” Others expressed skepticism, warning that “peace deals in the Middle East are fragile.” Japanese and South Korean officials, whose economies rely heavily on Gulf energy, hailed the progress but urged caution until shipping lanes are fully secured.
European policymakers said the talks underscored the need for diversification. “This is a reminder that Europe must accelerate its transition to renewable energy,” one EU commissioner said. U.S. lawmakers praised the administration’s efforts but warned that any agreement must be enforceable and transparent.
For now, markets are betting on optimism. The Nikkei’s 3% rise reflects investor confidence that energy supplies will stabilize, though shipping executives remain wary. As Jensen put it, “Even if a deal is announced today, it will be months before supply chains look anything like they did before the war.”
